Quant Points Out Striking Resemblance Between 2017 And 2021 Bitcoin Cycles

A quant has identified the similarities between the 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin cycles, one thing that would trace at how the remainder of this bear market would possibly play out.

Each 2017 And 2021 Bitcoin Cycles Noticed New Lows Round The 365-Day Mark Since The Prime

As defined by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the 2 cycles are extra comparable than one would possibly count on them to be.

The indicator of relevance right here is the “drawdown from ATH,” which measures the proportion lower within the worth of Bitcoin following the all-time excessive throughout every cycle.

Here’s a chart that reveals the pattern on this metric for the 2017 and 2021 cycles:

Seems to be like the present cycle hasn't gone as deep because the earlier one but | Supply: CryptoQuant

Within the above graph, the beginning level for the 2017 Bitcoin cycle drawdown is within the December of 2017, when the all-time excessive of the interval was set.

Following this high, the worth of the crypto took a pointy plunge till round when the drawdown from the ATH had reached a worth between 65-70%.

After reaching these drawdown values, the worth began to stabilize, and ran sideways for about 110 days.

Then, nonetheless, within the November of 2018 the worth of Bitcoin out of the blue collapsed, and saved declining till the underside was reached round 12 months following the ATH.

As for the present 2021 cycle, the highest shaped final November, and since then the worth has been dropping off. The chart reveals the trail this drawdown has taken up to now.

Whereas the decline isn’t precisely the identical within the two cycles, there’s nonetheless a placing similarity between them.

Similar to within the earlier cycle, Bitcoin plunged arduous following the highest, till the drawdown from the ATH hit a worth of 70%.

The crypto’s worth then consolidated flat just like within the earlier cycle, after which at across the 365-day mark, BTC made a brand new low after plunging in a similar way to the November 2018 crash.

To this point this cycle has resembled the earlier one, nevertheless it’s unsure in the intervening time whether or not it can proceed to take action in the remainder of the bear or not.

If it certainly follows an analogous pattern from right here on, then the quant believes there would nonetheless be one other 100 days of sideways motion left (through which the cycle backside might be shaped) earlier than the tip of the bear.

BTC Value

On the time of writing, Bitcoin’s worth floats round $16.5k, down 20% within the final week.

The worth of the crypto appears to have been transferring sideways just lately | Supply: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured picture from Jonathan Borba on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com