5G to hit 5.6 billion subscribers in 2029, but 4G will remain dominant in three regions

The variety of 5G subscriptions is predicted to hit 5.6 billion worldwide by the tip of 2029, when 5G would be the dominant community in all areas besides for 3, based on the most recent Ericsson Mobility Report. 

Globally, Ericsson initiatives that 5G will account for 60% of all cell subscriptions by the tip of 2029 and can drive 75% of total cell knowledge visitors, which is able to see a compound annual progress charge of 20% by way of 2029. 5G accounted for 25% of cell knowledge visitors final yr, up from 17% in 2022. The report famous that annual cell knowledge visitors progress is projected to gradual at various charges throughout completely different areas through the forecast interval, relying on native market dynamics.   

Noting that visitors progress may be unstable, Ericsson pointed to components resembling international macroeconomic adjustments, progress in mounted wi-fi entry (FWA) connections, and subscriber migration to later generations in markets resembling India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Excluding FWA, whole cell knowledge visitors globally will climb threefold, reaching 313 exabytes per thirty days in 2029. With FWA included, this quantity will develop at round 3.5 occasions to hit 466 exabytes per thirty days in 2029.

In response to Ericsson, some 300 service suppliers throughout the globe at the moment supply 5G companies, 50 of which have launched 5G standalone networks. The variety of 5G subscribers at the moment stands at greater than 1.7 billion, with some 160 million added within the first three months of this yr. By the tip of 2024, there can be just below 600 million 5G subscriptions worldwide.

These numbers have been adjusted upward from earlier forecasts as a consequence of a optimistic outlook from African markets. Nations are additionally regularly turning off older networks resembling 2G and 3G, Daniel Ode, head of Ericsson Singapore, Philippines, and Brunei, stated throughout a media briefing on Thursday in Singapore.

He famous that the smartphone market additionally recovered this yr, with shipments rising 6% year-on-year in Q1 2024. Ode added that service suppliers in superior 5G markets — resembling Australia and Singapore — proceed to deal with improvements in pace, protection, and differentiated companies.

Whereas 5G is predicted to be the dominant community in most areas by 2029, it is going to take the backseat to 4G in three areas: Southeast Asia and Oceania; Central and Jap Europe; and Sub-Saharan South East Africa. In comparison with different areas resembling North America and Western Europe, the place 5G will account for 90% and 86% of cell subscriptions, respectively, LTE or 4G is predicted to stay the dominant community throughout these three areas in 2029.

The predecessor community to 5G will account for 50% of cell subscriptions in Southeast Asia and Oceania, which incorporates Singapore, Australia, and Thailand. By comparability, 5G is predicted to contribute 43% of cell subscriptions within the area by the tip of the forecast interval. In 2029, 5G subscriptions will clock at 560 million in Southeast Asia and Oceania, with uptake fueled by extra reasonably priced gadgets, promotional plans, and huge knowledge bundles supplied by service suppliers, based on Ericsson. 

Requested why 4G, relatively than 5G, is predicted to retain the bulk share within the three areas, Ode stated adoption relied on native market developments and maturity. He additional famous that relatively than maintain and wait to maneuver to 6G networks, operators would need to proceed investing in 5G companies to faucet new income progress, particularly as they appear to stave off falling ARPU (common income per consumer). 

Though 4G is predicted to account for 50% of Southeast Asia’s cell subscriptions in 2029, this determine can be decrease than its 78% share final yr, as 5G grows its base to 43% by the tip of the forecast interval. 5G’s subscriber base is at the moment at 20% of the full in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, and Thailand, based on Ericsson, citing knowledge from service suppliers in Thailand and Australia and authorities companies in Singapore and Malaysia.

The report additionally highlighted that whereas the Philippines has seen elevated 5G community protection over the previous yr, 5G penetration and knowledge consumption have stayed low.

Ericsson famous that Indonesia’s 5G subscriber uptake has additionally been restricted, as service suppliers wait to be awarded mid-band spectrum to increase their 5G protection. Vietnam, too, not too long ago auctioned 5G mid-band spectrum, and business 5G is predicted to launch over the following six to 12 months.

In India, which has seen intensive 5G community deployments, broad protection, and availability of reasonably priced companies, 5G subscriptions clocked at some 119 million in 2023. This determine is projected to develop to 840 million by the tip of 2029 on sturdy 5G uptake, accounting for 65% of cell subscriptions in India, Bhutan, and Nepal. 

The area will see 4G’s share drop from 63% in 2023 to 32% in 2029, with connections dipping to 410 million subscriptions from 740 million, based on Ericsson.

Ode stated: “Differentiated connectivity will give customers, builders, and enterprises the optimum degree of connectivity on the proper time for his or her wants, guaranteeing seamless efficiency and useful resource effectivity within the community. Excessive-performing programmable networks, using 5G standalone structure, present new alternatives for service innovation and performance-based enterprise fashions.” 

He added that the introduction of gadgets powered by synthetic intelligence (AI) options might form consumer conduct sooner or later, although it stays to be seen the way it will form the longer term design of smartphones. This could rely on the use circumstances and functions for AI on cell, he famous. 

Rising adoption of AI, nonetheless, will definitely gasoline cell knowledge visitors and the necessity to handle any potential latency points, he stated.